Put yourself inside the mind of a detective and work it out for yourself

PeterMac on location with US Criminal Profiler Pat Brown in Praia da Luz

The "smashed, broken, jemmied shutters", . . . the shutters found "raised" by Kate , as confirmed by Gerry. . . but observed by no one else. At all.

Was Madeleine Beth McCann really abducted as her parents would have us believe? Or did something more sinister happen to her?

This e-book has been expertly written from the perspective of a retired Police Superintendent detective who served for twenty eight years with Nottinghamshire Police (1972-2000) variously in uniform, CID, training, and latterly as the Operations Commander of a large Division overseeing enquiries and investigations of all types.  Peter has no insider knowledge of this case but has merely used the material that was released to the public on DVD in August 2008 by the Polícia Judiciária when the investigation was shelved...leaving no stone unturned !

This material includes:
  • The detailed analysis of the legal situation by the Public Prosecutors and the several law courts in Portugal;
  •  P.C. Martin Grime's record of service and apparent infallibility of his sniffer dogs, Eddie and Keela;
All chapters researched and written by PeterMac, then proofread, edited, published by me.

1 Chapter 1: Changes in Story
Changing the initial version of events is a classic 'red flag' warning to police investigators

2 Chapter 2: Did they Search?
Did the McCanns physically search for their daughter Madeleine?

3 Chapter 3: Curtains, Door and Windows
We examine Kate's claim that the door slammed, and when she went in the curtains 'Whooshed' open.

4 Chapter 4: The “Window of Opportunity”
We calculate the vanishingly small 'window of opportunity' for the alleged abduction.

5 Chapter 5: Sedation
In this study we attempt to answer three questions
1 Were the twins sedated on the night of 3rd May 2007?
2 If so, were they sedated by an intruder ?
3 If so, but not by an intruder, then by whom ?

6 Chapter 6: Cold and Windy
Was the weather hot, as Gerry insisted, or cold and windy, as the others do, and what are the implications of this apparently trivial remark.

7 Chapter 7: Just Checking
We take another critical look at the inconsistencies in the Tapas group's statements about their checking of the children during dinner.

8 Chapter 8: Egregious examples
The most egregious examples of 'economy with the truth'.

9 Chapter 9: On the reliability of Cadaver Dogs
Some of the leading recent cases involving Cadaver dogs are examined.

The final two chapters are included to show the way in which people are capable of acting out a role, despite the pressures on them and despite their being in possession of the truth. They are relevant only to show sceptics that this can, and does, happen perhaps more often than people remember.

10 Chapter 10: Appeals and Pleas
Cases in which persons were reported missing or abducted, when in fact they had been harmed by a family member who made the false report.

11 Chapter 11: Crocodile Tears
Overlaps with the previous Chapter, but gives more examples of Television appearances.

12 Chapter 12: The Pool Photo - Floppy sun hats and flapping curtains ? 
This chapter emerged from the more formal Last Photo, Pool Photo work, when we started looking at weather charts, wind surfing competitions at Portimao, personal diaries of ex-pats, and the descriptions of temperature and weather in the Tapas group's statements and Rogatories.
It was soon realised that regardless of anything else, the wind and weather are capable of proving - on the balance of probabilities at the very least -
that the Last Pool photo cannot have been taken at lunchtime on 3/5/7
and that the curtains cannot have 'whooshed' at 10 pm on 3/5/7.

Both are independent of any other considerations, and the Chapter can stand alone for this reason.

13 Chapter 13: The McCann family, and the Dossier of Death
A ’Dossier’ was prepared, allegedly, of ‘tweets’, Facebook messages, and blog entries, sent to people unconnected with the McCanns. The 'Dossier' was handed in to the police.
Brenda Leyland paid the price. She paid with her life.

14 Chapter 14: The Last Photo = The Pool Photo
This is a heavily edited version of a paper which originally ran to 9 pages, with 24 pages of references, and four Appendices. Much of this appeared on CMoMM a long time ago. This analysis can be read independently of the 'Floppy Sun Hats and Flapping curtains' chapter, but overlaps with it.

Examination of this photo advanced in three main stages

First was to look at the photo and the statements surrounding it, and to examine who took it, and on which camera, and to ask why it was never, at any stage, released to the PJ.
This quickly led to the realisation that the photo itself was apparently sound. There was a robust argument about whether it had been photoshopped, but the strength of expert evidence is against this.
This in turn led to an examination of other aspects of it, the obvious weather, and the apparent wind speed being amongst these.
That led to yet another question. If the Last Photo was not taken at lunchtime on Thursday 3rd May, then when was it taken? Very quickly the only possible day presented itself, and this conclusion has defied serious destructive analysis.
That is dealt with in the Chapter (Floppy Sun hats and Flapping curtains)
From there the sequence of events, the identity of the person involved in the alteration of the Metadata, of the person who transported the finished image to PdL, and the person who then put this mendacious image into the public domain can easily be identified.
They are of course Capt. Louis Renault’s ‘Usual Suspects.’
But here, IF what we suspect turns out to be correct, then all four might be
Guilty of Conspiracy to Pervert the Course of Justice.
Of course if we are wrong, then they are not ! Only they know - know - the truth

15: Chapter 15: Almost the last word on the Last Photo !
In the Chapter Floppy sun hats and flapping curtains I showed how the Last Photo, the Pool Photo could not have been taken at lunchtime on 3rd May.
In the Chapter The Last Photo I showed how it was clearly possible for four clearly identifiable people, acting in concert, to take the image, alter the EXIF Metadata, take it back to PdL, and hand it to the person responsible for putting it into the public domain.
Both Chapters concentrated on proving what the photo was NOT.
Here I return to the theme, and try to establish what the photo actually IS.
In other words, when was it taken ?

16: Chapter 16: Why did they do this ? Seven worrying problems
Any child could have told them they would be found out.

17: Chapter 17: Some Philosophical thoughts in which we examine Logic and the absence of evidence
Once we have covered the logic and philosophy we can begin to apply it to the case in question.

18: Chapter 18: Say So, or Say No
The PAID....say SO
Not paid....say NO

19: Chapter 19: McCanns Embedded Confessions
Richard D. Hall interviews statement analyst, Peter Hyatt, in the USA

20: Chapter 20: Spot the water slide !
A challenge for those who believe the abduction myth and those who put out stories supporting that nonsense.

21. Chapter 21: Is the Tennis Balls photo the NEW LAST PHOTO?
Close friend, confidante, and uncritical McCann supporter, journalist Tracey Kim Kandohla seems to suggest this may be about to happen.
In a Mail Online article recently, à propos the McCanns’ blog site, she said:
Pictures include the iconic last known image of Maddie in pink sunhat and clutching tennis balls while on holiday “

22. Chapter 22: Tennis Balls Photo
My interest in this particular image was rekindled after the recent newspaper article by Tracey Kandohla, a vehement and uncritical McCann supporter and personal friend of Kate, who referred to the Tennis Balls Photo (TBP) where she says:
 “Pictures include the iconic last known image of Maddie in pink sunhat and clutching tennis balls while on holiday “   Having researched it further, some are now tending towards the conclusion that it could indeed be the last photo’ of Madeleine Beth McCann, taken some hours after the Pool photo.

23. Chapter 23: "Faking it - Tears of a Crime"
This chapter examines the cases of Shannon Matthews and Tia Sharpe and the parallels in the public behaviour of the people responsible for the events.

24. Chapter 24: Unhelpful relatives
Here I have tried to pinpoint things said by relatives and friends, who perhaps thought they were being supportive and helpful, but which, and who, turned out not to be.

25. Chapter 25: How much of this is fraud, and how much totally innocent?
In the accounts for 2008 the figure for setting up the website is given as £ 37,071 (Thirty seven THOUSAND)

26. Chapter 26 : What do I think happened to Madeleine ?
I am now prepared to rise to the challenge, and to present my “purported’ theory.

27. Chapter 27: Can any of this really be true?
Shortly after reporting Madeleine missing, the McCanns selected - VERY CAREFULLY and very quickly...

28. Chapter 28: The Pool Photo refuses to go away
The Pool Photo is of crucial importance. Of that there can be little doubt.

28a. Appendix to Chapter 28: Two Photos which tell an important story
Balance of probabilities ? or are we yet at  Beyond a reasonable doubt ?

29. Chapter 29: Fake News
Why do we not like a Lie, teach a child to forgo a Fib, punish Perjury, but suck up Spin, and just shrug our shoulders and give up on Fake News ?

30. Chapter 30: Forget the Facts - Focus on the Fallacies 
In Chapter 17 we started to consider some of the philosophical issues concerned with this case. We looked at whether absence of evidence could become evidence of absence (it can!) and we touched on Logic and fallacious argument.
What I want to do now is look at it purely from the point of view of Formal Logic...

31. Chapter 31: Jon Clarke – Olive Press LIES and VIDEOTAPE
Only Clarke can tell us for which of the untruths he and “The Olive Press” - and, by association, Netflix – prefer to be remembered.

Here I try to trace the origin of one of the more persistent Conspiracy Theories.

33. Chapter 33: Jon Clarke Entrenched Lies
To coin a neologism – “if you find yourself in a trench, stop digging”

34. Chapter 34: Decline and Fall of Modern Journalism
One small slip for a man; one giant fall for a profession.

35. Chapter 35: Mirage
A Diversion on Observation, and the influence of our previous Knowledge and Belief
In it I shall examine how we can think or believe we see something, when in fact the objective and scientifically provable truth of the matter is that we either did not, or that we saw something else.


37.  Chapter 37. A short recap
A brief restatement of some of what we know.

An easy entry point for people new to the research and analysis.
And above all a reminder to us all of why we are still here after 13 years.

38. Chapter 38: Lies – Damned Lies – And Jon Clarke
Yet another of Clarke’s “versions of the truth” has been exposed.

39. Chapter 39: Beyond a Reasonable Waterslide. Beyond the Pale
One day, one, just one, person will be driven by a higher sense either of common decency or of overwhelming guilt at what they have done to purge their conscience and to tell the truth.

It is the year 2037, and the case has now entered its fourth year.